With a busy autumn to prepare for, Change Britain’s Morning Briefing will be taking a short summer break starting tomorrow. Normal service will resume later in August.  
 

A trade deal with the United States brings new opportunities

  • The Scottish Government has written to the UK Government to express concerns that sub-standard US whiskey will be allowed to enter the UK market after we leave the EU (Sky News, July 2017, link). Worries have also been raised about hormone beef entering the UK market as part of future UK-US trade deal (Mirror, July 2017, link). These concerns are unwarranted. Outside the EU, we will be in charge of our trading future - that means that it will be for our elected representatives in the Government and Parliament to draw the red lines when it comes to things like food standards - not the unelected European Commission (Guardian, July 2017, link).

  • The Americans have already said that they are open to discussion about chlorinated chicken. As President Trump’s new Director of Communications, Anthony Scaramucci, has said - any deal will be based on reciprocity. Politicians should stop scaremongering, and instead help the Government secure a good trade deal.

  • As the last week has shown, with ministers going all over the world, Brexit creates global opportunities for new trading relationships (BBC News, July 2017, link)

Brexit will free up huge sums of money for our priorities

  • It is important that the Chancellor Philip Hammond’s comments to Le Monde newspaper over the weekend about not lowering taxes post-Brexit are not taken out of context. This is about winning support in Europe during the negotiations (BBC News, July 2017, link).

  • The simple fact is that, outside the EU, we will no longer have to pay large sums into the EU’s budget. This will save about £10 billion a year, net, which can be invested in our priorities, like the NHS.

  • The UK should not have to pay a large ‘Brexit Bill’. Demands from the EU for us to pay this amount is understandable - we are in a negotiation - but European leaders should remember that we have been a net contributor to the EU since 1975 (Independent, July 2017, link) and are under no legal obligation to pay a single penny if no deal is agreed by the end of March 2019 (Guardian, July 2017, link).

It is vital that - outside the EU - we take back control of our laws, money, trade and borders

  • There are reports of Cabinet tensions over whether or not free movement will continue after Brexit (Telegraph, July 2017, link).

  • It is vital that - once we have left the EU - the UK’s immigration system is decided by Parliament. The reason that many people voted leave last year is that they believed that immigration had to be under democratic control.

  • There may be a case for a transition period out of the EU - during which some elements of free movement will continue - but this must be strictly time limited, and only agreed to after a deal is signed between the UK and EU.

The economy will not suffer because of Brexit - it's in both the UK and the EU’s interest to strike a free trade deal

  • Reports that banks are planning to move out of the UK should not be exaggerated (Independent, July 2017, link). A number of City leaders including Barclays CEO Jes Staley, Santander Executive Chairman Ana Botin and Citi EMEA CEO James Cowles have all said that the UK will remain the financial hub of Europe after we leave the EU.

  • Furthermore, a report by PwC and TheCityUK estimated that the UK financial sector could add £43bn to the UK economy by 2025 if regulatory, industrial and governmental changes are made to enable post-Brexit growth (Business Insider, July 2017, link).

  • The simple fact is that it is in the EU’s interest to strike a trade deal with the UK that will have to include things like trade in financial services. As has been revealed over the weekend, the German economy has much to lose from a botched Brexit negotiation (HuffPost, July 2017, link).

Good economic news

  • An Oxford Economics report has forecast that London’s economy will outpace the EU-27’s largest economic centres of Paris and Frankfurt. Between 2017 and 2021, London’s economy is predicted to grow at a 2.3% annual rate, compared to 1.6% for Paris and 1.5% for Frankfurt (City A.M., July 2017, link).

  • European Commission survey data released on Friday indicates that business confidence in the UK’s industrial sector is at its highest level since 1990; helping put overall confidence in the economy at its highest level in the past year. (European Commission, July 2017, link).

  • Figures released by the aerospace and defence trade organisation ADS Group reveal that the UK aerospace sector has a record order book of around £220bn. The current aircraft order backlog has reached a record high of 13,589, which is 50% larger than it was in 2012 and double that of 2010. (City A.M., July 2017, link).